Making sense of Mideast alliances – Jerusalem Studio 745
Once upon a time, at the height of the Cold War, regional alliances were easily pictured.
On one half of the court stood the United States, with Turkey as a NATO member, Iran as the guardian of the Persian Gulf and Israel as the strongest power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Also on this list - Jordan, Saudi Arabia and at times weak Lebanon.
On the other side - the Soviet Union with the more radical Arab states, such as Iraq, Syria and South Yemen. Egypt moved towards the Western camp just as Iran moved out of it.
That was then, but now it is much more difficult to freeze-frame the state of alliances in the Middle East. Israel is of course a stalwart American partner, and so is Egypt under the current regime, but can Turkey and Saudi Arabia be safely said to belong there? And are Iran and Syria friends with each other, or mere Russian clients? And what is China’s role in this game?
Panel:
- Jonathan Hessen, Host.
- Amir Oren, Editor at Large, Host of Watchmen Talk and Powers in Play.
- Eran Etzion Former Deputy Head, NSC (National Security Council).
- Dr. Nir Boms, Research Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.
The program offers the viewer deeper understanding about current events in Israel. The topics vary from domestic and foreign policy to social changes, archaelogy and religion.
The program is hosted by TV7 Israel News anchor Jonathan Hessen.
Israel-European relations amid global shifts - Jerusalem Studio 798
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Iran’s ballistic missile proliferation amid expiring UN restrictions - Jerusalem Studio 797
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Prospects of Israel-Saudi normalization - Jerusalem Studio 796
On the most basic level, the much talked-about normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is already here. It is being considered publicly as a natural extension of Middle East realities. Rather than generating a violent Muslim, Arab or Palestinian reaction against Riyadh – as would have been feared several years ago – it is now…
The Abraham Accords: Three Years Anniversary - Jerusalem Studio 795
Three years have passed since the signing of the American-brokered agreements between Israel and several Gulf and North African governments. The invocation of the name of that ancient and original Patriarch, Abraham, could have in fact been applied to all of the earlier Arab-Israeli accords, and here this title was an effective example of copywriting.…
Iran’s nuclear progress; Saudi Aspirations for a Nuclear Program - Jerusalem Studio 794
Under the Shah Reza Pahlavi, Iran was the first Persian - or Arabian - Gulf nation to aspire towards nuclear weapons. Whether wanted for power or prestige, Iranian ambition launched a race which was joined by Iraq under Saddam Hussein. However, Iraq dropped out of the race 20 years ago, but the Islamic Republic has…
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As early as 1964, the Arab enemies of Israel started banding together in order to gang up on the Jewish State. While each nation had their own interest and design, they nevertheless vowed to unite against a common target. Now, some six decades later, this united anti-Israel front has transformed into an Iranian-directed axis. In…
Israel-Gaza Tensions on the Rise; Prospects of Escalation - Jerusalem Studio 792
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US Bolsters Military Mideast Deployment amid Rising Tensions - Jerusalem Studio 791
Last month the navy of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard conducted a military exercise around the coastline of Abu Musa, one of three disputed islands strategically situated in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran unilaterally took possession of these islands some fifty years ago, however, the United Arab Emirates has made the same claim. In order to reassure…
What Lies Ahead For Saudi Arabia? - Jerusalem Studio 790
Ever since the reign of the first king of Saudi Arabia, the House of Saud has been led by cautious, conservative and quite elderly Monarchs. They knew that their kingdom was weak and prone to attacks by powerful, oil-thirsty neighbors, and so walked a fine line when it came to domestic policy, taking into account…
Military deployments in Syria; Assessing the battlefield - Jerusalem Studio 789
Syria was once a proud sovereign country, hostile to the designs of stronger Arab nations such as Iraq and Egypt to gain control over it by inserting their military into its territory as part of alliances. But faced with a fight for survival, Bashar Assad invited Iranian troops, Hezbollah and other proxies and eventually the…
Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles; OPCW voices deep concerns - Jerusalem Studio 788
For the last 10 years Syria has been a Member-State of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and has undertaken obligations to get rid of all facilities and stockpiles of these horrendous means of destruction. The OPCW has a cumbersome mechanism of inquiries, fact-finding, investigations and reports. So while it was obvious to…
Rising U.S.-Russia Tensions in Syria; Regional Implications - Jerusalem Studio 787
Tensions are seemingly on the increase between Russia and the US, with repeated incidents raising the prospects of miscalculation which could escalate tensions even further. Tensions such as those related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as recent provocative actions over the Black Sea, form the backdrop of our discussion focusing on whether Moscow…
Is a Nuclear Armed Iran Inevitable? August ‘23 Status Report - Jerusalem Studio 786
The Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 1970, is reviewed every five years. There are talks ahead of this scheduled event called PrepCom (short for preparatory committee) in which the member states of this club take part. In this month’s Prepcom, the United States highlighted their concerns regarding Russia, China and North Korea. Regarding Tehran, it made…
U.S.-Iran tensions: prospects of escalation - Jerusalem Studio 785
American policy in the Arabian Gulf is seemingly being conducted on two separate levels. Militarily, U.S. Air, Naval and Marine assets have deployed to the region with great fanfare, to defend shipping harassed by Iran and deter further aggression. Politically, there are persistent reports of a deal being negotiated between Washington and Tehran to contain…
Israel-Lebanon: security situation assessment - Jerusalem Studio 784
Lebanon has everything nature has bestowed on it - mountains, snow tops, forests, beaches - and almost nothing designed by humans. No functioning government, no healthy economy, no cohesive society. Regrettably, it does have something to show for its troubles: Hezbollah, which lately has once again been provoking Israel, threatening renewed escalation, with whoever is…
Russia-U.S. tensions in the Medeast theater; threat of escalation - Jerusalem Studio
With the U.S. reducing its military presence in the Levant to a fraction compared to the massive footprint it had in the region during the campaigns in Iraq and against Daesh, and with Russia preoccupied with its failed war in Ukraine, it would seem unlikely that tensions between the two powers would rise here, away…
Israel’s state of strategic security affairs - Jerusalem Studio
When Israelis ponder their security challenges, they are usually torn between the frequent phenomena of terror attacks by Palestinian perpetrators and the longer-range threats from Iran and its local proxies in Lebanon and Gaza. It is also obvious that these separate challenges can converge once a minor incident escalates into a major campaign on several…
Russia's Internal Strife; Implications for the Mideast – Jerusalem Studio
When Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner militia crossed its “Rubicon” the Rostov-on-Don, all decision-makers and strategic planners in the Middle East braced for a face-off between the mercenaries’ employer and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the crisis abated as quickly as it began, the root causes remain - as are lessons begging to be learned by Israel…
Israel's Contribution to Europe's Security – Jerusalem Studio 783
Until Russia invaded Ukraine 16 months ago, Europe was quite complacent regarding military threats to its nations, with particular focus on terror in its various manifestations at home and abroad. Sudden tank battles, air strikes and waging of fierce missiles and infantry fights in urban centers and rural terrain have now given rise to the…
Viability of US-Iran “Understandings” to avert Nuclear Breakout - Jerusalem Studio 782
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Israel’s preparedness for a Multi-Sector War – Jerusalem Studio 781
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Infrastructure Sabotage - Could The Mideast Copy Europe? Jerusalem Studio 780
Earlier this month, a huge dam on the Dnipro River, in the Kherson region occupied by Russian forces in South-Eastern Ukraine, was blown up, flooding vast areas. Each side in the war predictably blamed the other, but the weight of motive and opportunity pointed to Russia, as it was in the process of hampering the…
US-Saudi relations amid China’s growing Mideast influence– Jerusalem Studio 779
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Saudi Arabia last week for three declared reasons: to make sure the anti-Islamic State coalition maintains its important function, confer with the Gulf Cooperation Council and to improve bilateral ties between Washington and Riyadh. Immediately prior to the summit, the top White House diplomat delivered an address to…
Iran’s nuclear progress, do political considerations threaten IAEA scrutiny? Jerusalem Studio 778
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) leaders, if not necessarily its member states, have in recent weeks adopted a conciliatory tone in public approach toward Iran. IAEA Director General Dr. Rafael Grossi has been going out of his way to accept Iran’s explanations of suspicious military nuclear activities as “plausible.” There is a questionable gap between…
Erdogan Re-elected: Domestic and Foreign implications For Turkey - Jerusalem Studio 777
Recep Tayyep Erdogan’s second round presidential election victory was neither a surprise nor a landslide. He was widely expected to win, yet almost half of the Turkish electorate showed its displeasure by voting for the opposition. Erdogan now has a renewed popular mandate, but he must navigate carefully the stormy seas of inflation and international…
Syria Back in The Arab Fold - Jerusalem Studio 776
In the Middle East, as presumably almost anywhere else, nothing succeeds like success. Also, values have a very limited value. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad managed to survive very difficult years of civil war, in which he practically converted a lot of his nominal sovereignty to a free hand for his sponsors from Russia, Iran and…
Israel’s Aerial Superiority - Jerusalem Studio 775
When combatants either cannot or would not use their ground maneuver forces in a military campaign - and artillery is forbidden if the mission against enemy targets isn’t possible if not pinpointed and the risk of collateral damage is too high - there is only one option for use by IDF General Staff, the Israeli…
After five days of exchanging blows, Israel and the minor but well-equipped Gaza-based organization Palestinian Islamic Jihad stopped this particular round, another in a seemingly endless series. As expected, both sides issued self-serving claims of victory. Obviously, propaganda and politics aside, they each have different standards by which to measure their respective balances, as does…
Post-election Turkey: What’s next? Jerusalem Studio 773
This episode focuses on the 14 May elections, including the run-off vote between the two leading presidential candidates later this month on the 28th. All conclusions are therefore ‘interim’ regarding the performance at the polls by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan performance, who may yet emerge victorious despite failing to gain majority vote I the first…
Iran’s Growing Influence over Damascus; Regional implications – Jerusalem Studio 772
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi visited Damascus last week for talks with his counterpart Bashar Al-Assad. The main issues were economic, but the visit - the first since the Syrian civil war erupted a dozen years ago - also signaled Tehran’s growing influence over the Assad regime, secondary only to the Russian role in the war-torn…
Israel’s state of deterrence: Credible Military Threats vs. Adversaries – Jerusalem Studio 771
As a nation whose defense doctrine was based on keeping the smallest possible regular military force backed by reserves to be mobilized in emergencies, Israel put a lot of stock in deterrence, hoping for wide intervals between wars. But deterrence has many levels and many target audiences, and Israel has in recent years struggled with…
"Binational boats beyond Bab-el-Mandeb:" This could be a fitting headline for a groundbreaking - or in this case perhaps sea-breaking - activity undertaken in March but revealed only about a week ago. The Israel Navy and the US Fifth Fleet linked up far away from Israel’s borders, more than 2,000 kilometers south of Eilat, as…
Russia’s bid to normalize Syria-Turkey relations – Jerusalem Studio 769
In late April, for the second time in four months, Russia convened a multi-party meeting of defense and intelligence chiefs attended by Syria and Turkey. This time, Iran also participated. The main item on the agenda has been the Turkish insistence on military presence within the territory of Northern Syria, in order to fight Kurdish…
The Arabian Gulf: Shifting Sands amid global developments – Jerusalem Studio 768
Whether you call it the Persian Gulf - as the Iranians see it from its Eastern Shore, or the Arabian Gulf from a Western perspective, its waters have always been tense. There are competing regional powers such as Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and even lesser ones that are still energy and economy powerhouses due…
Sudan: Internal Discord, geopolitical implications – Jerusalem Studio 767
Sudan, a poor country strategically located south of Egypt, along the Nile and on the Red Sea, has in recent weeks descended into chaos and destruction due to a conflict between two Generals who were supposed to share power. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s Armed Forces and General Dagalo’s Rapid Support Force have spared neither each…
Memorial and Independence Days: Israeli Stocktaking at 75 – Jerusalem Studio 766
The State of Israel this week marks a day of mourning which at sundown will morph into a day of celebration - Memorial Day, then Independence Day. At 75, the Jewish State has reached a maturity which allows us to take stock and assess its position, both absolute and relative to where it has been…
Israel’s challenge of facing multi-sector threats – Jerusalem Studio 765
It has become a cliché to claim that Israel is facing simultaneous threats from several quarters - within it, on its boundaries with adjacent entities and territories and outside it. The challenges are always there, but most of the time they erupt serially rather than concurrently - and can be dealt with accordingly. In recent…
Israel’s northern front amid rising tensions – Jerusalem Studio 764
When Israel looks north towards the two neighboring countries yet to sign peace agreements with the Jewish State, it also looks to east. That is, of course, because whatever happens in the frontlines with Syria and Lebanon is inspired and even directed by the Ayatollah regime in Tehran. This is why Israel takes a holistic…
Rising US-Iran tensions in the Mideast – Jerusalem Studio 763
The Biden Administration has tried to separate its policy towards Iran’s de-facto pursuit of military nuclear capability from the other concerns it has with Tehran’s Mideast activities, as well as the brutal suppression of domestic dissent. While a revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal is officially off the table, there…
Israel between two maritime fronts – Jerusalem Studio 762
Israel’s main coastline is on its west, facing the Mediterranean Sea. The country’s main naval adversary was once Egypt, but after four decades of peace with Israel, today’s maritime challenges emanate chiefly from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. This has especially been true since discovery of an abundance of offshore energy resources, which is…
40 Years since CENTCOM establishment: Objectives for the Mideast– Jerusalem Studio 761
When US General Michael Erik Kurilla presented the annual posture statement for his combatant command to Congressional committees recently, he chose to open it by looking back to its history. It has been 40 years since Central Command (CENTCOM) was carved out of the long-established European and Pacific Commands. As Kurilla mentioned, the original threats…
Operation Waves Breaker, One year Anniversary of Counter-Terror Operations – Jerusalem Studio 760
To Israelis - now immersed in the unfolding political /civil /judicial drama, it may seem as if it all happened ages ago; but in fact it was last year at about this time that a wave of terror acts hit Israel’s cities. Armed infiltrators seemed to operate at will in population centers as security forces…
Israel’s challenges emanating from Lebanon – Jerusalem Studio 759
For a decade and half now, the conventional wisdom has been that following the clash with Hezbollah in summer 2006, Israel’s frontier with Lebanon has been kept quiet due to the deterrence gained by the heavy blows inflicted by the IDF. This assessment was brought into question by a sudden terror act - probably conceived…
Ten years Since Israel’s Campaign Between the Wars – Jerusalem Studio 758
It was either January or March of 2013 - depending on whose position - when Israel’s Air Force struck a target deep inside Syria, with no response from Damascus. This turned out to be the quiet start of what Israel called “the Campaign Between the Wars” (with the Hebrew acronym MABAM). Hundreds of strikes later…
The Iran-Saudi deal vs Israel’s regional integration – Jerusalem Studio 757
In the 1970’s, when Iran was openly allied with the United States and less openly with Israel, the Shah was tasked by Washington in helping Saudi Arabia from falling into the Soviet orbit. Decades later, with Iran hostile to Americans and Israelis alike and Saudi Arabia openly allied against it with Washington and less openly…
Israel's external challenges amid internal strife – Jerusalem Studio 756
While Israel has been undergoing its internal struggle, external challenges have not receded. They may even have risen, as hostile forces were glad to watch the Jewish State and its defense establishment tear themselves apart. This was the backdrop to successive visits by the highest military and civilian officials of the Pentagon, US Chairman of…
Can Israel rely on the West vs Iran? Jerusalem Studio 755
In 1981 and 2007, Israel acted alone against Arab nuclear efforts. The strikes at the Iraqi and Syrian reactors were undertaken out of the blue and their limited nature helped convince Saddam Hussein and Bashar al-Assad to abstain from retaliation. This is not expected to be the case if Israel decides to send its Air…
